I have one constant companion—doubt. With every keystroke I make, there is a devil perched on my shoulder questioning whether I deserve to write. I now earn more from writing than I did from my fancy tech job, which, while remarkable, feels undeserved.
If I wanted to dispel that feeling, I have a couple of options—Oreos, Prozac, pounding Diet Coke until my eyes bleed—but I think the best solution is Napkin Math™. Accordingly, this post is the Napkin Math on whether I’m good at my job. I’ll go through the outcomes I predicted in my essays last year, score their accuracy, and see what I got wrong.
All writers should do this exercise, as too many skate by on reputation and cultural cache. Public reckonings with accuracy hold you accountable to the audience on whether the product they are paying for is worthwhile. My goal is that you pay me for accuracy. This piece is about whether the investment is worth it.
To prepare, I read everything I’ve written over the last 12 months and scored myself from 1-20 on the accuracy of the forecasts I made. A 1 is terrible, awful, Quibi-is-the-future-of-entertainment-level of take. A 20 is a spooky, 100% correct forecast.
Image credit: Lucas Crespo
I’d estimate that a lifetime average score of 12 is the minimum acceptable level of performance for a newsletter writer. My hope was for 15. If I got a result below 9, I was going to quit and go back to the farm.
Last year, I scored an average of 16.45 average and a median of 17.5, which translates to a roughly 80% accuracy rate on my calls. This year saw a marked improvement in my score, with a median of 19.5 and an average of 18.5. In 2023 I published over 50 pieces, with most containing one or two predictions, so it’s a decent sample size. The math would say that I am a much-improved analyst. When coupled with the increased virality of my pieces and our reader survey showing more subscribers rating my work highly, I had a very good year.
While my averages were high, a few things brought them down:
- I was too generous in my estimation of humanity. I thought that this was the year that we finally got serious about understanding algorithmic feeds in content. Very predictably, no progress past tribalism was made.
- In 2022, I proposed some business strategy theories that were proven true relatively quickly. This year, I proposed similarly grand theories about the internet, but I wasn't lucky enough that evidence immediately proved me right. Unfortunately, evidence does not yet adhere to a fiscal year schedule, though hopefully some obvious proof points will surface soon.
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I enjoy your writing. You educate, authentically share your internal stuggle, challenge my assumptions, and aspire for greatness. Entertaining and intriguing.
Dude . . . go for it! Your drive to improve is truly amazing. Keep it up!
The title of this made me laugh out loud :)
I have (because I'm an Old Fart and English in the Engerland still) a take on "Napkin Math", that it's 'back of a fag (as in cigarette. Calm down) packet' calculation.
The Steve Jobs thing about living your own life. We have a anarcho-punk thing here - there is no authority except yourself.
Lovely article, happy holidays!
I appreciate anybody who puts themselves out there to be tested against cruel reality. Real failure is not trying. Thank you for providing thought-provoking content.
The freedom you grant yourself to follow your creativity inspires me on a weekly basis.
@gmgunn I meant *curiosity*
I'd be disappointed if you only wrote about one thing.
So glad you have a good relationship with the referee part of you that comes into the writer part of you to say whether or not you made the progress and all possible touchdowns. The truth is, many Every subscribers are doing the same thing by asking should I continue? Here's the promise that attracted me: "What we hope for--We aim to build a writer collective to explore every industry, every topic, and every job role in business. We hope to gather all of this coverage into one place, and make it available to readers as a bundle—for one subscription price." When it stops being EVERY and spends most writing on AI and Crypto, I'll leave quietly.
Congratulations Evan! A big revelation- yes please own your genius. The brightest minds usually believe they are far from it because they have the awareness to know how little they know. But that is an irrelevant measure. Everything is relative and ultimately, looking at the impact you make is what matters. Keep going, follow your heart and intuition and I can predict 💯 that you will fly!
Enjoyed all the different articles this year, keep it up! If you ever find yourself wanting to finish that series on all parts of the income statement, would love to see the rest!
So....new title, should you fire the author of this newsletter...in other words, own that you are deciding on the content of the newsletter so I wouldn't be firing the newsletter, I would be firing the creator of the content...AND I AM NOT FIRING YOU, NOR THE NEWSLETTER...just thought I'd put that in all caps for emphasis and to be very clear. You be you...you be the newsletter but even more so if there is anything to change.
Other readers/commenters...you be you as well.